BitShares was launched back in 2015 as a decentralised exchange, allowing users to trade tokens and with the native BTS acting as a collateral for financial services including smart contracts, exchanges, bitAssets (a sort of Stable Coin) and more. BTS is the brainchild of two well-known figures in the crypto space: Dan Larimer, co-creator of Steem and EOS, and Charles Hoskinson who co-founded of Ethereum and Cardano.

Technical Analysis

Bitshares has already risen substantially in the previous bull run back in 2017 to reach a new high of $0.915 from $0.002 at the start of that year, an astounding 460x move in under 12 months. While the high reached in January could be seen as the completion of a long-term trend, the price structure suggests that it is actually the top of a wave X (a complex version of a B wave in EW theory) of wave 4, overshooting the wave 3 top of $0.510 back in June 2017, and sees the recent drop to $0.034 completing the fourth wave. The fact that the price just bottomed at the 50% retracement of the full wave 3 move supports this view.

My long-term projections using logarithmic Fibonacci extensions is for the price to top as a wave 5 in the $4.8-$6.3 range sometime in 2020, proving a decent 100x ROI from the present level. The reason it might not look as much compared to newer cryptos is that BitShares has already completed its third wave, which is usually the move where we see the greatest percentage gains, and is now rising as a wave 5. However, in a bull market, wave 5 can extend and reach higher levels, but that is something we will only find out as the price starts moving to new all-time highs.

I do have an alternative bearish count that could play out in the event that Bitcoin follows a bearish path, as outlined in my previous post. This count would see BTS having already completed the larger wave (1) at $0.915 back in January and having just completed wave W of (2), a complex form of wave A. The price should then move up in a corrective move to reach the $0.3-$0.6 range in the coming months before resuming the down-trend and complete the larger wave (2) in the $0.019-$0.008 range sometime in 2020.

While this is not my expectation at the moment, it’s important to keep an open mind and look for all possible paths in order to remove any bias when analysing a chart. Regardless of the path it takes in the long-term, BitShares should rise some 10x in the coming months to reach a short-term top below the January all-time high, a “small” gift for Christmas. 

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Responses

  1. Ian Jeffreys @DNAian

    Thanks for the BTS technical analysis Matthias. I hope your long term projections are correct and a small Christmas gift in January would be very nice indeed. I lost my BTS collateral when the Bitshares global settlement happened last month ;(
    Happy holidays and looking forward to a better new year. Cheers!
    ian

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    1. Matthias Post author

      Not cool. BTS should rise to that x box shown in the 2nd chart, and then correct a bit before a) rising to new ATHs or b) dropping to lower lows. Crossing my fingers for a), but have to wait for the price structure of the current move up to complete to have a better view of the long-term path.

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