The head of the cryptocurrency trading platform Bitmex Arthur Hayes predicts the inevitable decline of the reference cryptocurrency to 2 thousand dollars. He considers such a scenario at a time when many analysts and experts expect the inevitable explosive growth of cryptocurrencies.
But Hayes is gradually moving into the bear camp. A few months ago, in may 2018, he claimed that bitcoin will end the year at the level of 50 thousand dollars, but a few days ago he said that the bearish trend will last another 18 months.
Hayes uses a 200-day moving average (200-DMA) as the main indicator of his forecast. In his opinion, the bear market begins when the asset price falls below 200-DMA. But not when the price begins to decline below the cyclical peak, as many traders believe-writes forklog with reference to CCN.
Based on this methodology, bitcoin entered the bear market on March 12, when its price was $9152. Since then, bitcoin has lost only 37% in value. However, taking into account the previous cycles of the fall of the first cryptocurrency, when it fell much lower, Hayes believes that before the end of the bearish cycle is still very far.
According to him, before the initiative moves to the bulls, the price of the cryptocurrency could potentially drop to $2000: “a 75% Drop from $9152 will lead us to $2000. So the range between $2000 — $3000 is my new target.”
In addition, Hayes believes that if the current low price volatility continues further, bitcoin will gradually decline. In this opinion, he disagrees with other analysts, such as Tom Lee.
“Contrary to popular belief, bitcoin requires volatility if it ever gets universal acceptance. The price of bitcoin is the best and most transparent way to report the health of the ecosystem. It tells the world that something is happening, whether it is positive or negative,” said Hayes.
For traders, it remains only to look at the market and try to predict the real bottom of the market. “The last breath of the bear can be predicted by price fluctuations at the bottom of the market. You’ll see it, but chances are you’ll be too afraid to push that scary “buy” button, ” Hayes added.