There is a known relationship between money and currency. When the value of currency is rising against money, it is considered a period of appetite for risk. People are willing to put there money to work in order to achieve a greater rate of return.
When the value of money is rising against currency, it is a period of risk aversion. People would rather hold on to their money rather than risk putting it to work for a greater return.
Some time before the current monetary order, gold and silver was money, whereas notes (like the US Dollar or the British pound, for example) issued by banks were considered currency.
During a period where there was a great appetite for risk, people would be happy to leave their gold and silver with the bankers or put it to work in the economy to earn a greater return. The roaring 20s were a great example of this, when stock markets were rising significantly.
After the stock market peak in 1929, there was a great period of risk-aversion. There were banks collapses everywhere, and economies almost came to a halt. The banks were collapsing due to the consequences of the excessive credit created during the roaring 20’s. In order to preserve value, people were seeking to hold on to their money (gold and silver) or redeem them from the bankers with the issued notes (currency).
Although there have been many changes to the monetary system over the years, this mechanism between money (gold and silver) and currency (fiat currencies) is still intact, and we are currently moving from a phase of appetite for risk to risk-aversion. In other words, gold and silver prices will rise significantly.
With the existence of private money (in particular, cryptocurrencies) there is another interesting dynamic that fits into the above. It probably sits somewhere between the two cycles (that of risk-appetite and risk-aversion), but with some complexity.
During the first phase of the crypto bull market, the relationship between cryptocurrencies and the US dollar was one where the US dollar strangely acted as money and cryptos acted as currency to the US dollar (or other national currencies).
In other words, there was appetite for risk and many people were viewing cryptos as an investment or a growing economic activity (like starting a new business would be seen). So, they put their US dollars to work in the cryptos to earn more US dollars.
The fact that the stock market was still rising, and gold and silver was not, means that we were still in a period of appetite for risk.
As we go further into the next phase of the crypto bull market, the situation might become different at some point, since cryptos could to an extent play the role of money, whereas the US dollar is the currency that people will flee (please note that I am not saying cryptos is money or will become money, just that it could play the role of money).
In other words, due to risk-aversion, cryptos could be viewed as a means to preserve value threatened by a fiat collapse. Much like the difference between how an American and a man from Turkey might currently view cryptos.
This could likely start when gold and silver rise significantly, and the stock markets start taking a beating.Recommended5 recommendationsPublished in