I didn’t plan to write a post like this before the year ends, but, somehow, I realized that not much can happen in the next 5 days. Or if it happens, it can only be on the upside, because after a 80% loss nothing can scare you anymore on the downside.
So, what really happened in 2018? What was “good”? What was “bad”?
I strongly believe that “good” or “bad” are highly contextual concepts, meaning their amount of “goodness” or “badness” varies heavily, depending on the experiencer point of view. For example, for many people the bear market was extremely bad, but for other people, who shorted the crypto market, it was extremely good.
So, although I used “good” and “bad” in the title, I’ll try to avoid them in the actual article. What I’m going to focus on is the underlying change that crypto, as a tech and social movement brought around this year.
1. The Hype Is Over
I remember how 2018 started, in a burst of enthusiasm and media coverage. Bitcoin (and the entire crypto market) was seen like the mother and the father of unicorns. It was the universal panacea for ending world hunger, political crisis and, of course, the deep thirst for Lambos. Well, the sun soon dawned upon this bubble, and, very soon after the beginning of the year, the bubble popped. Not very suddenly, but rather steadily and slowly. Now the hype is really over.
2. The Parallel Money System Is Here
I know for many people this would be remembered as the bloody 2018, because they will see it from the “price lenses”, but from the “tech lenses” this is rather promising. For me, the most important advance of the Bitcoin tech is the satellite network brought by Blockstream. I think people are not realizing the impact of this. To have _around the globe_ a network of satellites that can move money around, quasi-anonymously, at a fraction of the banking system cost, and _without using censorable internet connections_, that is rather huge. I think we will see a lot of positive coming up from this in the next couple of years.
3. The War For The “Real” Bitcoin Was Lost
Another constant during 2018 was, at least for me, the abundance of “Bitcoin airdrops”, in which Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin SV came on top. The way this unfolded was highly predictable. I think the only people that didn’t see this will crash hard were the ones involved. Blinded by greed (or just exaggerated hopes) the very powerful men behind these hardforks proved to be, in the end, too little for the size of the giant they were fighting with. A formless, blind Bitcoin literally crashed them under its wave of sheer hash power.
4. The ICO Moment Of Truth
A lot of scammy vibe was surrounding the ICO universe, and for good reasons. Many ICOs were scams and it was really easy to see this, if you spent a few years looking at what “regular startups” are doing. I was fortunate enough to be in that position (of overseeing “regular startups”) for more than a few years, so I was able to see the lies behind the nicely done webpages and empty, wooden-words presentations. 2018 was the year which shed a brutal, but much needed light over this shady area. 95% of ICOs are now official scams. The nice thing is that the remaining 5% are truly revolutionary.
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